The chance of getting hit by a Soviet spacecraft goes up next week
- A Soviet spacecraft called Kosmos 482, launched in 1972, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around May 10th.
- The lander, weighing 1,091 pounds (495 kg), was designed to survive passage through Venus’ atmosphere but its parachute deployment system may not work after 53 years.
- The descent will be uncontrolled, increasing the risk of the lander surviving reentry and potentially causing damage or injury.
- The likelihood of being hit by Kosmos 482 is extremely low, comparable to getting struck by a meteorite or lightning in your lifetime.
- Despite the slim chances, it’s unclear where the lander will fall, adding to the uncertainty surrounding its reentry and potential impact.
Part of a failed Soviet spacecraft that’s been circling Earth for the last 53 years is about to come crashing down. The Kosmos 482 probe launched by the USSR in 1972 was intended to collect data from the surface of Venus, but was marooned in orbit following a malfunction in its upper-stage rocket booster.
Kosmos 482 broke apart following the launch. While some parts re-entered Earth’s atmosphere in the 1980s, the remaining pieces, which include the 1,091-pound (495 kilograms) lander, measuring about three feet, have been slowly descending and are now expected to plummet around May 10th, according to Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek.
It’s currently unclear where it will fall, or if the space junk will burn up before impact, but as Langbroek notes in his blog: “this is a lander that was designed to survive passage through the Venus atmosphere,” the surface of which sits at an average of 867 degrees Fahrenheit (464 degrees Celsius), so there’s a chance it will survive reentry. The descent will also be uncontrolled, as there are significant doubts that the lander’s parachute deployment system will still work after all these years.
The real-world likelihood of actually being hit by Kosmos 482 is astronomically slim. “The risk is similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year,” Langbroek told The Guardian. “You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime.”